Friday Session: Broad-Based Weakness Across Wheat Markets

The wheat complex finished Friday with losses across all three primary exchanges. At the midday mark, Chicago soft red winter (SRW) contracts were down between 13 and 18 1/4 cents. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures recorded a 17-to-26-cent decline, while Minneapolis spring wheat contracts shed 13 to 16 cents. The broad-based selling reflected a combination of elevated global supply signals and weak demand data released alongside the report.

USDA Report: US Balance Sheet Held Steady, World Stocks Risen

In line with market expectations for this period, the USDA kept its US production figure unchanged, noting that it will await the Small Grains Summary scheduled for September 30 before revising that number. The remainder of the domestic balance sheet was also left intact, with US carryout holding firm at 717 million bushels.

The more consequential shift came on the global front. World wheat stocks were increased by 3.04 million metric tons to a revised 276.29 MMT. The adjustment was driven by a mix of supply and trade revisions: Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts were trimmed by a combined 4 MMT, while Australian output was raised by 3 MMT and Canadian production was bumped up by 1 MMT. The net effect pointed to a more ample global supply picture, weighing on near-term price discovery.

Export Sales Data Falls Short of Estimates

The weekly export sales report, released that morning following a one-day delay caused by the Monday holiday, showed 2026/27 wheat sales of 194,233 MT for the week ending September 3. That figure fell well short of the 250,000-to-500,000-MT range analysts had penciled in. Year-over-year, sales were down 37.64% and 36.39% below the same week a year earlier, underscoring softer international demand.

By the close, September 26 CBOT wheat stood at $7.13 1/2 (down 9 3/4), December 26 CBOT at $7.23 (down 18 1/4), September 26 KCBT at $8.04 1/4 (up 12 1/2), December 26 KCBT at $7.93 1/2 (down 25 1/4), September 26 MIAX at $7.42 3/4 (up 15 3/4), and December 26 MIAX at $7.48 3/4 (down 13 3/4). The mixed moves in the back months suggest dealers are still working through the supply-demand adjustments embedded in the updated USDA figures.